Best 5 Bets for NRL Round 6 - Line and Under/Over Total Match Points
1. Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs @ McDonald Jones Stadium
BET = Under 41.5 Total Match Points
1. The Knights have managed just 92 points this year at an average of just over 18 per game
2. The Bulldogs have scored 64 points this year at an average of just over 12 point per game
3. Despite their attack being ordinary, the Bulldogs have been stout defensively conceding 95 points at an average of 19 per game
4. The Knights have been far more competitive this season in their second year under Nathan Brown. Apart from the Panther’s blow out, this side has been putting together 80-minute performances.
5. On Friday night, I'm expecting slippery conditions in Newcastle and the Bulldogs to try and grind out a win.
2. Gold Coast Titans v Canberra Raiders @ CBUS Super Stadium
BET = Over 45.5 Total Match Points
1. In Titans’ games this year there have been a combined 258, at an average of over 50 per game.
2. The Titans’ defence looks paper thin so far this year and, against a rampant Canberra attack, they could be in for a long night. The Titans are conceding 28 points per game.
3. In the 2 games between the 2 Clubs last season, they combined for 96 points at an average of 48 per game.
4. I think the Raiders are starting to get their attack in gear after a slow start to the season. They are averaging 30 points per game across their last 3 games.
5. These teams are not noted for playing a grinding defensive style of game. I think there will be plenty of ball movement, and some flimsy defence to boot.
3. North Queensland Cowboys v Wests Tigers @ 1300 Smiles Stadium
BET = Wests Tigers + 15.5
1. Under Ivan Cleary I expect a huge attitude adjustment from the Tigers’ players this week.
2. The Cowboys continue to have some issues with injury. They are missing dynamic hooker Jake Granville for this game. Plus there are doubts around Lachlan Coote and Michael Morgan.
3. The Tigers have a decent record against the Cowboys, beating them 26-14 last year at Leichhardt Oval.
4. The Tigers’ attack has been really poor over the last few weeks and I think they are due to click here. They have dropped the ball over the line a fair bit this year.
5. I think the Cowboys will definitely win this game, however it's always a gamble giving away so many points start. If the Tigers can come out firing early with a try or two, they can cover this massive start.
4. New Zealand Warriors v Parramatta Eels @ Mount Smart Stadium
BET = Parramatta +2.5
1. I'm still not at all convinced by the Warriors’ form line. A 4-point win over the Knights and a come from behind 6-point win over the injury ravaged Titans have hardly been convincing.
2. I don't know what has happened to the Eels the last few weeks, however they will surely be desperate for a win after three straight losses.
3. Whilst some people are talking about how much impact Kieran Foran is going to have, don't underestimate how much Parramatta will want to put one over him this week.
4. Last year, when the Eels went to Mount Smart Stadium, they ran out convincing 40-18 winners.
5. I still think Parramatta’s form line is stronger than the Warriors, and that they can win this physical encounter, or if they lose it will only be by 2.
Melbourne Storm v Cronulla Sharks @ AAMI Park
BET = Over 33.5 Total Match Points
1. Both these sides are averaging over 20 points per game this year.
2. While the Storm have conceded just 48 points through 5 games, the Sharks attack traditionally causes them more headaches than any other team. Expect them to try some offloads and unstructured play.
3. While Grand Finals are traditionally grinding and defensive wars of attrition, this might not be the case in Round 6. With not as much at stake, I expect a more open game of football.
4. Melbourne is going to be super motivated here to prove a point. After last year’s heartbreaking loss in the Grand Final, if they get a lead don't expect them to sit on it.
5. The average points per game in the NRL this year is well over 34 points per game. Unless this game is rain affected we only need 6 tries to cover this.