My Best 5 Selections For NRL Round 3 (Points Spread/Overs-Unders)
1. Canterbury Bulldogs v Warriors @ Dunedin Stadium
BET = Canterbury Bulldogs (+5.5)
1. The Bulldogs have won 5 of their last 6 games against the Warriors, including 15 from 23 overall on Kiwi soil.
2. Their only loss to them was in the corresponding figure last season, by just 4 points.
3. I think the Bulldogs will be slightly more desperate for a win here, having started 0-2 .
4. I think the Bulldogs 6-point loss to the Storm and 4-point loss to the Roosters is better form than the Warriors’ narrow win over the Knights and 16-point loss to the Storm.
5. I just think this game is going to be really physical and tight. I think the Warriors have enough lapses in games that the Bulldogs can keep this close, even if they don't win the game.
2. Newcastle Knights v South Sydney Rabbitohs @ Hunter Stadium
BET = (Over 43.5 Points)
1. These teams combined to score 72 points last week, but also let in 50 combined.
2. Dry track on a Saturday afternoon in Newcastle usually means a fast ruck and plenty of open football.
3. These sides clashed twice last season where there were 54 points combined at ANZ Stadium and 46 points combined when the sides met in Newcastle.
4. I think Souths, this season, are playing a more expansive game plan, and they looked very impressive last week with their ball movement against a similarly dicey defensive team in Manly.
5. Newcastle are averaging 28 points per game this year and look like they are full of energy and intent at the moment under Nathan Brown. However, their defence is still vulnerable, as is Souths.
3. North Queensland Cowboys V Manly Sea Eagles @ 13000 Smiles Stadium
BET = Manly (+11.5)
1. The Cowboys are missing their 2 best forwards in Matt Scott and Jason Taumalolo.
2. Whilst the Cowboys are 2-0, they could easily have lost both of their games having gone into golden point.
3. You have to expect a reaction from Manly, after being embarrassed at home last week.
4. With the Cowboys lacking that forward power, it is a lot easier for teams to get up in Thurston’s face.
5. I just think Manly can score a few tries here and keep this game close. I do not expect them to win, however the Cowboys are giving away a huge start considering they are missing their two best forwards.
4. Penrith Panthers v Sydney Roosters @ Pepper Stadium
BET = Sydney Roosters (+1.5)
1. Roosters are off a 9-day turnaround, while Penrith are coming off a 6-day turnaround in energy sapping conditions at Campbelltown.
2. I have tipped the Roosters to win the competition this year and I think they will be keen to put down an early marker here. Put simply I like them more as a side then Penrith.
3. Penrith made a lot of line breaks out wide against the smaller Tigers’ outside backs. I can't see them being able to do that against a physically more imposing side in the Roosters.
4. If the forward packs can cancel each other out, I still fancy Mitchell Pearce and Luke Keary as a slightly more composed halves outfit than Nathan Cleary and Te Maire Martin.
5. I’m expecting this game to be the game of the round, and these 2 teams are extremely well matched up. I'm just taking the Roosters as I think they have an advantage in preparation.
Cronulla Sharks v St George Illawarra Dragons @ Shark Park
BET = (Over 39.5 Points)
1. Last week in the Sharks’ game against the Raiders there were a combined 58 points, whilst in the Dragons’ game against the Eels there were 50 points scored.
2. Last time the sides met there were a combined 50 points scored.
3. I think the Sharks’ attack looked really dangerous last week and they are going to play an open style of game.
4. After a couple of years of really struggling in attack, the Dragons are averaging 29 points per game in the opening two rounds.
5. Even in Round 1, in a rain affected game against Brisbane, Shark Park looked like a bowling green, so I think both sides shouldn't be too affected if the conditions are slippery or a bit wet under foot.