AFC South - Preview and Prediction

AFC SOUTH Preview - From one of the tougher divisions in football in the AFC West to perhaps the most lightweight one in the AFC South, at least in 2015 anyway. This was clearly the easiest division in the AFC and the weakest division in the NFL in 2015. Last season the division winner the Texans went 9-7, while the division was a combined 25-39 which was the worst in the NFL, fractionally poorer than the NFC East. Outside the division the teams went a combined 13-27. However this year I expect every team in the AFC South to be a little better, which is something that is hard to say for any other division in the NFL. All sides have made positive moves in the off-season, and this will be a much tougher and even division. I expect 3 sides to be close to the playoff mix and the 4th side to improve. 

HOUSTON TEXANS

Last Season 9-7 (AFC South Champions, Exit 1st Round Playoffs) 

The Texans 2015 season looked in turmoil when they fell to 2-5 on the back of a shocking 44-26 lose to Miami where the defence gave up over 500 yards. The Texans trailed 41-0 at halftime in this game and many expected that they were done for the season. What happened next was quite stunning as the Texans went 7-2 through the rest of the regular season and ended up claiming a playoff berth and the AFC South division crown, their first since 2012. Even more remarkable is the fact the Texans employed 4 veteran starting quarterbacks at different times in 2015 in Bryan Hoyer, Ryan Mallett, T.J Yates and Brandon Weeden. Hoyer was awful in the Texans embarrassing 30-0 home playoff loss to the Chiefs and that prompted the front office to take action. The Texans gained Brock Osweiler on a 4 year, $72mdeal after he baulked at Denver's low ball offer. Osweiler started 7 games for the Super Bowl Champions last season on his way to 10 touchdowns and 6 interceptions and a quarterback rating of 86.4. Osweiler arrived in Houston with some weapons around him. DeAndre Hopkins is a stud at wide out - in 2015 Hopkins was 3rd overall for receiving with over 1500 yards. He finished 7th in touchdowns with 11 and was rewarded with a trip to the Pro Bowl. While the Texans lost Arian Foster who had scored 65 touchdowns (running and receiving) for them since 2010 it must be noted he had missed 23 games in the past 3 seasons and appeared on the downswing. The Texans defence led by the force of nature which is J.J Watt has the potential to be a top 5 unit heading into 2016. Former number 1 draft pick defensive end Jevedeon Clowney will be looking for a breakout season after an injury punctuated season in 2015. 

Verdict 10-6. AFC South Champions. Exit 1st Round Playoffs. 

I can see the Texans edging this division based on their far superior defence to their rivals in the South. J.J Watt and this defence should improve even more given my predicted better play from the offence in Houston this season under Osweiler. Osweiler still has some question marks about him - however he is an upgrade on the 4 journeymen they had playing quarterback for them last season. Houston has some weapons that Osweiler can use and I expect him to have a solid season. Still think they might come up a little short in the playoffs although they will be far more competitive than against the Chiefs last season. 

NRL Team Comparison - Sea Eagles. Have made a couple of big off season recruits but can they live up to the hype?

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

Last Season (8-8, 2nd in AFC South, No Playoffs)

There are a lot of questions marks about the Colts coming into season 2016. They entered last season as overwhelming division favourites only for a litany of injuries and poor play see them miss the playoffs.  Two seasons ago they finished just one win away from the Super Bowl when they were blown out by the Patriots in the AFC Championship game. Last season was a disaster as they flopped their way into an 8-8 finish, conceding a division many thought they had a strangle hold on to the Houston Texans. Much of the Colts fortunes will rest upon the superstar talent which is quarterback Andrew Luck. Luck is coming off the worst season of his 4 year old NFL career managing just 7 starts in 2015. Those 7 starts yielded just 2 wins, a completion percentage of 55% and a touchdown/interception ratio in the negative at 12/15. Luck, surprisingly, has been somewhat of a turnover machine since entering the NFL throwing 55 interceptions. However Luck is also a match winner and his 87 touchdowns led the Colts to 3 straight division titles before last season’s disaster. Luck threw for over 4000 yards twice in his opening 3 seasons and went just under 4000 yards in 2013. At running back an ageing Frank Gore might not be the answer to taking some of the pressure off Luck. The Colts looks to be skinny at running back and in skill positions outside. The offensive line looks to have improved with some recruiting and this could allow Luck some vital time to pick and choose and make smarter decisions. The Colts defence was suspect last year allowing the 7th most yards and conceding the 8th most points. However they did create turnovers with the 5th most interceptions in the NFL and they were 7th in forced fumbles. 

Verdict 9-7. 2nd In AFC South. No Playoffs

I think the Colts will be better, however I can see them just falling short in the division and just missing a wild card berth, courtesy of a tiebreaker. Andrew Luck remains a great talent and I expect him to rebound from a poor and injury punctuated season. The defence and run game remains average at best. However with their propensity to create turnovers I think they should be competitive in nearly every game.

NRL Team Comparison - Going with the Rabbitohs here. Some top end talent, but not much in behind that. 

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

Last Season (5-11, 3rd in AFC South) 

There is a fair bit of hype about the young Jaguars heading into 2016. They have bolstered their defence and will carry forward one of the brighter young offensive units in the NFL. However this side still has a long way to go to prove themselves having had 5 straight double digit losing seasons combined with not having a winning record since 2007. Led by Allen Robinson the Jaguars have some of the most explosive players in football at running back and at wide receiver. Robinson had an All Pro year managing 80 catches, 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2015. Allen Hurns  proved a great foil for Robinson catching 10 touchdowns of his own. With Julias Thomas at tight end the Jaguars have a genuine triple threat in offence. The Jaguars have recruited running back Chris Ivory who led the AFC in rushing last season with 1070 yards. Ivory will share the running duties with T.J Yeldon who averaged over 4 yards per carry last season. All that sounds fantastic, however in the NFL you need a solid quarterback and in Blake Bortles the Jaguars have a work in progress. Bortles made strides last year going from a terrible 11/17 touchdown/interception ratio in 2014 to 35/18 in 2015 as the Jaguars surrounded him with more weapons. Bortles has been sacked an astonishing 106 times in 2 seasons leading in being sacked the past 2 seasons. The defence has been largely abysmal the past few years. However with 3 or 4 pick ups the Jaguars should have aspirations of making the playoffs in this wide open division. 

Verdict 8-8. 3rd in AFC South

I expect the Jaguars to be far better this year. However I just can't trust them quite yet to be a playoff team that many are predicting. They have plenty of young talent. However I think there still might be a few bumps along the road for this franchise. This division will be tougher than last season with the Colts, Texans and Titans all a little stronger. I expect the Jaguars to thrill and frustrate in equal measure this year. Either way this side is on the up after years in the wilderness.

NRL Team Comparison - Easy one here, Wests Tigers. Lots of young talent ready to prove themselves. Had plenty of recent poor seasons missing 5 straight playoff series. However finally, like Tigers fans in 2016, they will see light at the end of the tunnel. 

 TENNESSEE TITANS

Last season (3-13, Last in AFC South) 

The Titans will be looking to rebound from a terrible 2015 when they finished 3-13 and cast adrift at the bottom of the AFC South. The Titans lost a ghastly 7 of their 8 home games at the Nissan Arena and they will need to address that if they want to improve as a team heading into 2016. Central to all eyes will be young quarterback Marcus Mariota who had a decent rookie campaign in 2015. However decent will not be enough this season to appease Titans fans, as the Titans made many sacrifices at the draft table to bring in Mariota. Mariota started 12 games in his rookie year  and had the respectable figures of completing 62% of his passes on his way to 19 touchdowns and 10 interceptions and over 2800 yards. The Titans major off-season gain was surely Demario Murray, the rough shot running back who never quite fitted in with the Eagles under Chip Kelly. Murray led the NFL in rushing with 1845 yards in 2014 in Dallas - however last season proved a disaster when he made just over 700 yards at under 4 yards per carry. However there is no doubt the Titans are weak up front in terms of both their offensive and defensive lines. Games can be won and lost up front and I see the Titans struggling to match sides physically. The Titans allowed the most sacks in the NFL last season and had an average defence overall. 

Verdict 6-10. Last In AFC South

I see the Titans improving a fair bit this season doubling their win tally from 2015. I think Murray will have a far better year in Tennessee and give them a balanced offence. I think ultimately their defence will let them down and with all teams looking a little stronger than they were last year, I can't quite see the Titans getting off the bottom. 

NRL Team Comparison. Gold Coast Titans (boom). Well sort of. The Titans are one of the poorer clubs that have not been too relevant for a while. Maybe like their NRL namesake they can spring a real surprise this year after a bit of positive recruiting.